Release Date: November 15. 2024
Release Department: Jeenoce Strategic Research and Market Insight Center
The recent "two major publications in one week" by photovoltaic leader LONGi Green Energy in the premier international journal Nature has undoubtedly sent two "technological shockwaves" through the industry. Jeenoce believes we should look deeper, discerning the fundamental shifts in industrial logic these events reveal. This is not merely a technology showcase, but more like a "preview" of the photovoltaic industry's competitive landscape for the next decade.
November 10: Ultra-thin Crystalline Silicon-Perovskite Tandem Cell Efficiency Breaks 33.4%
Small-area device efficiency: 33.4% (NREL certified).
Commercial-size flexible tandem cell efficiency: 29.8% (Fraunhofer ISE certified).
Jeenoce Quick Take: The key to this breakthrough lies in the validation of "ultra-thin" and "flexible" characteristics at a commercial size. This is a victory not only in efficiency but also a dual breakthrough in cost and application scenarios.
November 13: Release of Amorphous-Polycrystalline Silicon Hybrid Interdigitated Back Contact (HIBC) Cell Structure
Innovatively employs an amorphous/polycrystalline silicon hybrid passivating contact within the BC structure, optimizing the carrier transport path.
Jeenoce Quick Take: This is not a simple improvement of BC technology, but a paradigm shift from "structural optimization" towards "collaborative optimization of the material system," opening a new efficiency ceiling for single-junction crystalline silicon cells.
Beyond the widespread acclaim, Jeenoce offers the following three exclusive perspectives to glimpse the future pulse of the industry:
LONGi's moves, while superficially showcasing progress in BC and tandem technical routes, fundamentally demonstrate a new competitive model: "platform-based" R&D capability. The HIBC technology represents its deep exploration of passivating contact technology within its crystalline silicon technology platform. The perovskite tandem cell showcases its integration capability across material system platforms. Jeenoce assesses that future industry leaders will no longer be mere proponents of a single technology route but must possess the ability to master multiple "core technology platforms," launching derivative technologies and products in a coordinated manner, like conducting a symphony, according to market rhythms.
LONGi's breakthroughs are quietly reshaping value distribution within the industrial chain:
For HIBC Technology: Its extreme requirements for amorphous/polycrystalline silicon film quality and interface passivation processes will significantly increase the value and strategic importance of core process equipment and high-purity specialty gases/materials. Auxiliary material fields traditionally dominated by "scale" will face a reshuffle where "technology prevails."
For Tandem Technology: The "flexible" and "ultra-thin" characteristics will turn previously defined "peripheral" components – such as laser scribing, encapsulant films, and flexible substrates – into "core" elements determining product success. Jeenoce recommends that upstream and downstream companies in the chain should immediately re-evaluate their own technology roadmaps to identify new value points within this technological transformation.
The industry was accustomed to managing the lifecycle of a single product (e.g., PERC). Currently, however, different technology paradigms like HIBC (crystalline silicon paradigm) and Tandem (cross-material paradigm) are developing in parallel and hold potential for convergence (e.g., HIBC could serve as the bottom cell in future tandem cells). This poses an extreme challenge to a company's technology strategy management capability. LONGi's simultaneous breakthroughs exemplify its ability to actively manage multiple "technology paradigm lifecycles." Jeenoce foresees that the ability to establish such a dynamic, parallel technology management and investment decision-making system will be a key differentiator between top-tier enterprises and followers.
Based on the above analysis, Jeenoce proposes the following strategic recommendations for industry participants:
For Equipment and Material Enterprises: Move beyond the mindset of providing generic equipment. Shift towards "symbiotic R&D" with leading cell manufacturers, developing customized, integrated solutions tailored for specific technology pathways like HIBC and Tandem.
For Investors and Industry Analysts: The criteria for evaluating a PV enterprise should shift from current metrics like capacity and cost towards its "diversity of R&D platforms" and the "credibility of its technology roadmap."
For Peer Companies: Re-examine whether your own R&D system is "follower-type" or "pioneer-type." In an era of rapid technological paradigm iteration, lacking underlying technology accumulation and forward-looking path judgment entails extremely high strategic risk.
LONGi's achievements are commendable. They signify that China's PV industry has formally entered the deep waters of "basic science driving applied technology." Jeenoce will continue to use its unique "industrial deconstruction" perspective to penetrate the surface and discern the essence, hoping to help our clients accurately position themselves to secure victory in the magnificent energy revolution.
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